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The defining development of the first quarter arrived in late February, when the outbreak of conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. For this sector, the immediate concern was less the oil price and freight rates that dominate the headlines than the physical supply moving through the strait: energy, certainly, but also the fertilizer and chemical feedstocks for which the region is a major source. The disruption remains in place. It will occupy much of the quarter’s commentary, but the more useful question is what it is doing underneath.
